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2006 Summer Movie Box Office Predictions Which Movie Will Be #1? by Wild About Movies May 11, 2006 FIRST AND FOREMOST - Check back daily to enter for your chance at a pair of Free Advance Movie Screening Passes to all of the movies mentioned in this feature! Click on any link below to watch the trailers of this summer's prospective box office hits.
The 2006 Summer Movie Season really began last week with the release of “Mission Impossible 3,” a box office disappointment – yes, even with $48 million in its first three days. (The second “Mission Impossible” earned $11 million more than #3 in its first weekend of release more than six years ago, when ticket prices were significantly lower.). However, even so, “Mission Impossible 3” is destined to become one of the Top 20 movies at the box office this year, and probably one of the summer season’s Top 10.
Any magazine or website that makes predictions is doing so going in just as blind as we are. NONE of them have seen any of the movies for which they are making predictions and are basing their predictions on just idle speculation. We are doing it a little differently. We have assistants in virtually every major market, nationwide, and what we have done is gauged audience reaction to “Summer 2006” movie trailers and tabulated those reactions – positive and negative – to bring you our predictions!
Oh! And by the way, there are five animated films opening this summer that have the potential to earn more than $100 million – and only one of them is a Disney film. “Cars,” the Disney/Pixar collaboration; “Over The Hedge,” Dreamworks’ last film (Paramount bought them); “The Ant Bully” from Warner Bros. (which proved themselves in the animated division with “The Polar Express); “Monster House,” Sony’s first animated film and “Barnyard,” a Paramount movie that has been pushed back six months. OK. Our picks, plain and simple, for the Top 5 Box Office Hits of “The Summer of 2006” – movies we are predicting each make $200 million or more – are as follows. “Superman Returns” – There is no other trailer that has achieved as much applause, nationwide, during the past few weeks, than “Superman Returns.” And, even better, “X-Men 2’s” director, Bryan Singer, jumped ship, bailed on “X-Men 3” to direct this “Superman” movie that has been almost twenty years in the making. Yes, twenty years ago, Nicolas Cage was signed on to play the man in tights! (We’re actually predicting $300 million for this movie.) “Pirates Of The Caribbean 2” – A lot of people are predicting that this will be the summer’s biggest hit at the box office. But there are very few sequels, if any, recently, that earn more than the original. (We are predicting $250 million.)
“X-Men 3” – “X-Men 2” is one of the few sequels that earned more than the original. From what we and our assistants have witnessed, we think the third time will be the charm, even though that Bryan Singer, director of the first two "X-Men," has switched super hero allegiances, and that this incarnation will earn somewhere in the $225 million ballpark. (“X-Men” earned $157 million during the summer of 2000. And “X-Men 2” took in $215 million during the summer of 2003.) Watch an exclusive seven minute clip from "X-Men 3."
“Lady In The Water” – M. Night Shyamalan. Need we say more? This movie has not been mentioned as a Top 10 contender in any major Summer Movie box office predictor feature. We, though, think it will land in the Top 5. This is a movie about a character from a fairy tale – Bryce Dallas Howard (Ron’s daughter) – who falls into the real world and must find her way back to fairy tale land. How can this not be a box office smash, what with the surprise endings we have all come to expect from Shyamalan? (We’re predicting $210 million.) “Cars” – This is the final Walt Disney/Pixar collaboration, so they say. And from what we have seen, it is one of the best. The voices behind the cars include Paul Newman, a race car enthusiast; Owen Wilson; Cheech Marin; Larry The Cable Guy and Bonnie Hunt. Yes, last summer’s Disney film “Herbie: Fully Loaded” was a bomb, but this is classic Disney animation. We’re going out on a limb and predicting this is a $200 million + movie. (We’re predicting a solid $200 million.) O.K. Now for the rest of the best!
“The Da Vinci Code” - It's going to be either a box office record breaker or a box office bomb. And we are going with bomb. Ron Howard and Tom Hanks track records have not been great, as of late. Nor has Sony Pictures’ filmed adaptations – see “Memoirs Of A Geisha.” Best case scenario: $250 million. Worst case scenario – and the one we’re going with: $150 million. Not a bomb, by any stretch, but nor the #1 movie of the summer they are hoping for. First, Tom Hanks is hardly the Robert Langdon most picture while reading the four years and running New York Times #1 Best Seller. (Clive Owen was our choice.) But, we shall soon see. Take note! “Click” – Adam Sandler is back. This time he has a remote control that, well, yes, controls the world. How can that not be funny? At least for the juvenile delinquent crowd that have made Sandler’s last dozen or so movies box office gold? “Snakes On A Plane” – No one has seen this movie that has been talked about, left and right, up and down, all over the web. Very few horror films earn more than $50 million at the box office, but Wild About Movies is predicting a solid $100 million for this soon-to-be cult classic. “The Devil Wears Prada” – The novel was a NY Times Best Seller. And it was an amateurish freshman endeavor. But, with Meryl Streep attached to the film, as the lead bitch boss and Anne Hathaway as her lowly assistant, how can it go wrong?
“The Break Up” – This is the movie that brought the former Mrs. Brad Pitt, Jennifer Aniston, to Vince Vaughn. They have been an alleged couple for the past year, or so. But, if rumor proves to be correct, their ‘relationship’ will end after this movie comes and goes from theaters. That being said, we think this movie has a chance to become a $100 million + hit. “Nacho Libre” – Paramount is hoping and we are predicting, that this will be one of the sleeper comedies of the summer. Jack Black in a quirky comedy. How can it go wrong? “Little Miss Sunshine” – Steve Carell is back. This time not as a 40-Year-Old Virgin but as a suicidal uncle in this road trip comedy. It’s from the independent division of Fox – Fox Searchlight – but their “The Full Monty,” almost a decade ago, was a Best Picture Oscar nominee.
“Miami Vice” – The biggest problem we have with this film is not Jamie Foxx as Ricardo Tubbs – or Colin Farrell as Sonny Crockett. The fact that the theme song has been fucked with is what we think will sink this movie. You don’t fix something if it ain’t broken. Can you imagine a different “Charlies Angels” them song? Or, even, “Mission Impossible” theme song? Hell --- NO! So, in a way, we are hoping that Michael Mann’s movie, based on his television show, tanks big time – as we hear, from inside sources, that it will – but we are also giving the movie the benefit of the doubt, since we have not yet seen it, and as Michael Mann has yet to disappoint. This is either a $200 million box office bonanza or a $50 million or less, bomb. Tick tock! 2. "Pirates Of The Caribbean 2" 5. "Cars" 8. "The Ant Bully" Adam Sandler's "Click" has the best chance of knocking "You, Me And Dupree" out of the Top 10, and becoming this summer's #1 comedy.
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